Users of the Polymarket prediction market now most often bet on France to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The team took the lead after Spain's odds dropped due to an unexpected draw with Cape Verde.

Before the opening round, it was Spain that held the top of the ranking, but a goalless draw with the tournament's debutant quickly changed the picture. Traders instantly priced in the disappointing result, and France seized first place.

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How the bets on the champion changed

According to Polymarket, France winning the tournament now accounts for 18.4% of bets. The contract on its championship is trading at $0.185. The team has gained significantly over the day and secured the top spot.

Spain dropped to second place with a probability of 13% and a contract price of about $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. Next come Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104).

Portugal closes out the group of favorites — also about 10% at a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the market for the winner exceeded $2.54 billion, which reflects high interest in the tournament.

Why Spain lost ground

Spain's draw with Cape Verde became one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered extremely unlikely, so the unexpected result hit the Spaniards' quotes hard.

At the same time, the market merely cooled toward Spain but did not strike it off the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains a chance to improve its standing in the upcoming matches.

The lineup at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England and Portugal are running neck and neck, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.

Source: BeInCrypto