• On June 17 the FOMC meeting on the interest rate took place.
• The regulator decided to leave it unchanged, in line with forecasts.
• Bitcoin reacted with a decline.
• In experts' opinion, the speech of the new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh was "hawkish."

On June 17, 2026, a meeting of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took place. As a result, the regulator decided to leave the interest rate at its current level — 3.5%-3.75%.

Recall that this is the first meeting under the regulator's new chairman, Kevin Warsh. The Fed's decision was expected and matches experts' forecasts. In addition, this time the statement regarding the interest rate is significantly shorter.

Between Trump and the market: what the Fed's first rate decision under Warsh will be 06/17/2026 Read

Note that the Fed has been holding its current course of monetary policy since December 2025. At that time the regulator cut the interest rate by 25 basis points.

Against the backdrop of the news, bitcoin dipped below $64,000. At the time of preparing this material, the asset is trading near this level.

The next Committee meeting will be held approximately on July 28-29. According to the CME exchange forecast, the probability of a cut is 0%, of a hike — 32.1%, and of holding the course — 67.9%.

Such a distribution is driven not so much by economic indicators — after the publication of the consumer price index (CPI) data in the U.S. for May the probability of a rate hike was low — as by the tone of Warsh's speech.

Earlier we analyzed in detail how the Fed rate affects high-risk assets in general and bitcoin in particular.

Warsh's first press conference

In his speech the new Fed chairman emphasized the regulator's mission to ensure economic stability. He also expressed commitment to maintaining the inflation level at the 2% mark, stressing that it is still far from being reached.

Warsh's speech in brief:

• economic activity is growing at a steady pace despite heightened uncertainty, which is partly driven by the conflict in the Middle East;
• the unemployment rate has hardly changed;
• inflation significantly outpaces the Fed's long-stated target of 2%. This has been going on for more than five years;
• persistently high prices are a burden for the American people;
• the statement on the interest rate has become shorter, simpler, and some outdated wording has been removed from it;
• it will also no longer contain "forecasts for the future," since this does not match the political situation;
• real GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2026 and by 2.3% next year;
• the projected inflation value is 3.6% in 2026 and 2.3% next year;
• Warsh appointed a working group on five key areas on which the Fed relies when forming monetary policy;
• this was done in order to review the metrics and their relevance.

The new Fed chairman also answered a number of journalists' questions. He emphasized that for now he does not plan to revise the 2% inflation target.

At the same time, Warsh declined to answer questions about how long the Fed can maintain a neutral course and what it plans to do next. According to him, any forecasts for the future are impractical in the current realities.

In addition, the new Fed chairman openly stated that he intends to revise the regulator's communications policy as a whole. This concerns not only the coverage of the interest rate and meetings but also press conferences.

Regarding the interest rate, he stated the following:

"There was one proposal on the table. No other proposals were discussed. The discussion of this proposal, I would say, was rather limited. The group was unanimous and unambiguous on this issue. It is common practice for this central bank and others to have a range of alternatives. Today we had only one."

At the same time, according to him, Warsh is "not too interested" in the short-term reaction of the markets. His policy and attitude toward covering the regulator's course are aimed at ensuring that counterparties perceive signals and data not through the prism of the Fed's actions.

Answering the question of how the new chairman would explain the absence of information and its interpretation to an ordinary person, Warsh said the following:

"I would tell him that we cannot have a significant impact on individual prices. But we have a really important task, and it is to ensure that these changes in the oil, meat, egg, or dairy industries do not spread to the entire economy and do not cause secondary and tertiary consequences."

Overall, experts assess Warsh's speech as "hawkish." The chairman's refusal to provide more detailed coverage of indicators and forecasts increases volatility, and the rhetoric points rather to a tightening of policy than to easing. In this regard, the probability of a rate cut by the end of 2026 is assessed as extremely low.

Source: Incrypted