Pi Coin (PI) price is down more than 6% over the past week. And it is currently down 96% from its all-time high, posted early last year. Yet the metrics that track big-money and retail behavior have quietly turned the other way.

That split between a falling price and improving flows is the setup traders are watching in July. It hints the token’s long slide may be losing steam.

Big Money and Retail Line Up as Price Slips

On the 8-hour chart, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a proxy for buying and selling pressure from large wallets, climbed to 0.13.

It rose steadily between June 21 and July 6, even as the Pi Coin price kept sliding. That gap is a bullish divergence, and it suggests larger wallets were buying into the weakness, possibly buoyed by the new product lineup . A similar signal appeared in late May. Soon after, PI rallied about 8%.

Retail flows point the same way. Across nearly every major exchange, Pi Coin exchange outflows outweighed inflows over the past 24 hours.

Combined net flow came in around negative 260,000 PI, led by OKX, Gate.io, and Kraken. When coins leave exchanges, sellable supply on order books shrinks, and the data suggests buyers held the upper hand.

Still, short-term flows mean little unless the higher time frame agrees.

Weakening Sell Volume and RSI Hint Pi Coin’s 96% Decline Could Stall

On the two-day chart, PI still sits inside a falling channel, a downward-sloping band that has capped price since late April.

It tried to break above the channel several times in late June. Each attempt failed. Even so, the token trades above the channel’s midline, which keeps a recovery path open.

Selling volume tells a quieter story. Since June 28, down-day volume has been fading. Falling sell volume during a decline suggests sellers are running low. That is why Pi Coin’s 96% decline from its record high could be nearing a floor.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum gauge that runs on a 0 to 100 scale, adds weight. Between June 4 and June 30, price printed a lower low while the RSI printed a higher low. That bullish divergence, often precedes a trend shift.

Whether it becomes one now depends on a handful of price levels.

Pi Coin Price Levels to Watch for a July Breakout

The first test sits at $0.112, followed by the $0.111 record low that marks the 96% drawdown. Holding both keeps the structure intact and supports the case built above.

A push through $0.119 would lift PI out of the falling channel for the first time since April. Clearing it opens room toward $0.134 and $0.139. The flow and momentum signals suggest the Pi Coin price can manage at least a 5% bounce from here.

The read is not clean. The broader trend is still down, and a single heavy sell day could void the divergence.

Supply is the other risk. About 127 million PI unlock over the next 30 days, close to 6.5 million a day, and that steady release can cap any bounce if demand stays thin. A daily close below $0.111 would confirm the 96% decline is extending. That exposes $0.108 next, with a crucial line at $0.101.

The $0.111 record low separates a July recovery from a deeper leg toward $0.101.

Source: BeInCrypto