Ethereum (ETH) trades near $1,730, a level last seen in March 2023, after losing 65% from its August 2025 all-time high. Meanwhile, its biggest upgrade since The Merge is approaching with almost no market attention.

On-chain activity remains at bull market levels, yet social interest has collapsed. The technical structure, however, keeps pointing lower as a nine-month downtrend presses the Ethereum price against its last major support.

Glamsterdam Becomes the Catalyst Nobody Is Watching

The Glamsterdam upgrade will be Ethereum’s first major base-layer throughput overhaul since 2022, changing how the network assembles blocks. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows called it the biggest Ethereum upgrade since The Merge.

According to his estimates, the gas limit will rise from about 60 million to 200 million, roughly three times higher. He also projects throughput of up to 10,000 transactions per second and gas fees up to 78% lower.

Devnet-5 and Devnet-6 are already running. Pillows points to an internal mainnet target in late August, while Q3 2026 remains the realistic launch window after the ePBS delay.

“Feels like a fundamental H2 catalyst that’s still flying under the radar while ETH is trading near the lows,” Pillows wrote.

The upgrade also arrives alongside Vitalik Buterin’s Lean Ethereum roadmap, which targets over 10x lower fees but has drawn pushback on its timeline.

Some traders are already positioning aggressively for a rebound. One wallet just opened a $19.9 million ETH long with 20x leverage, with a liquidation price sitting only $50 below its entry. Analysts recently warned that unliquidated longs already dominate major assets, making such bets exceptionally fragile.

On-Chain Data Shows Real Usage Without the Hype

Glassnode data reveals a striking divergence. The 30-day moving average of active addresses holds near 450,000, the same band recorded in August and September 2025, when the Ethereum price traded above $4,500 at cycle highs.

Network usage has therefore decoupled from price. Activity peaked near 740,000 addresses in February 2026, and current readings remain historically elevated even with ETH down roughly 65% from the top.

Sentiment tells the opposite story. Santiment shows ETH social dominance at just 0.587%, among its lowest readings in over a year.

There is no hype and no capitulation chatter either, only apathy. Historically, such disinterest has often accompanied late-stage bear phases rather than market tops.

ETH Price Prediction: $1,754 Is the Line in the Sand

The weekly chart shows the Ethereum price at $1,730, an area that ETH broke out from in March 2023.

The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $1,753.66 acts as long-term support, and buyers have defended this zone five times in the past.

Weekly RSI sits near 38, a low reading that has not yet reached bearish extremes. The nearest resistance stands at the 0.618 Fibonacci level of $2,438, about 41% above the current price. A confirmed breakdown would expose the full retracement at $881.56, roughly 49% lower, near the previous cycle bottom.

The daily chart strengthens the bearish case. A descending trendline from the August 2025 all-time high has capped every recovery attempt, most recently rejecting the price from the 0.618 level in May.

That trendline now presses ETH directly against the 0.786 support zone. The squeeze suggests the level may not hold, which could send the price deeper in late summer or early autumn. ETH appeared in far stronger setups as recently as May, before this structure broke down.

Daily RSI confirms the pressure. Its own descending trendline has rejected momentum three times since January, and a fourth rejection now pushes the indicator back to a neutral 51.

If buyers defend $1,754 into the Glamsterdam launch window, ETH could attempt a recovery toward $2,438. A weekly close below the zone, however, would likely confirm the breakdown and shift the target toward $881.

Source: BeInCrypto