The copper price set a fresh all-time high this week, with the Comex September contract touching $6.7045 per pound on Tuesday. The metal trades near $6.72 on Wednesday, up roughly 17% in 2026 and more than 50% in the past 12 months.

A long-overdue US tariff ruling and a deepening supply squeeze outside America are fueling the advance. The daily chart now points to $6.85 as the next upside target.

Tariff Front-Running Pulls Record Copper Volumes Into the US

More than 200,000 tonnes of copper arrived at US ports in July, according to Bloomberg calculations based on customs data. That marks the largest monthly inflow since records began in 2014.

Traders keep shipping metal into the US because President Trump’s decision on refined copper import tariffs remains pending. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s June 30 deadline passed more than a month ago. The proposal on the table starts at 15% in January 2027 and rises to 30% a year later.

The waiting game has made hoarding profitable. New York copper traded about $640 per tonne above London on Tuesday, nearly double July’s average premium of $350. Combined Comex and LME inventories exceed 740,000 tonnes, while US ports hold another 110,860 tonnes in private storage.

Michael Cuoco, head of metals at StoneX Financial, warned that the flows reflect policy rather than consumption.

“The tariff arbitrage is ruling the roost over demand growth.”

History adds a caveat. In July 2025, a 50% tariff spared refined metal, and Comex prices collapsed 20% in a single day. A similar exemption now would hit the US premium hard.

Global Supply Shock Tightens Copper Outside America

The arbitrage explains the US buying spree. However, it does not explain why London prices also sit near records.

LME copper touched $14,050 per tonne this week, close to January’s record of $14,500. Meanwhile, the cash contract commands a premium of more than $100 over three-month metal, the widest backwardation since January. Physical buyers are paying up for immediate delivery.

The squeeze starts with sulphuric acid. The Strait of Hormuz closure in late February cut around half of seaborne sulphur exports from the Gulf, according to Kpler research. China then banned acid exports in April, and the two shocks together removed roughly a quarter of global supply.

That matters because solvent extraction and electrowinning (SX-EW) produce more than 15% of the world’s copper cathode and run on acid. Operations in Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo reportedly hold only 30 to 60 days of inventory.

Chile delivered another blow. Codelco paused the expansion of its El Teniente mine after detecting new seismic risks, one year after a deadly rock burst at the site.

Banks have taken notice. Goldman Sachs lifted its end-2026 target to $13,735 per tonne, while Citi sees $15,000 within a year. When copper set its previous record in June, the rally faded within days. This time, backwardation suggests the tightness is physical rather than speculative.

Copper Price Prediction as Trendlines Converge Near $6.85

The daily chart shows the copper price breaking out of the $6.60 resistance zone, which capped every rally in May and June. A successful retest would confirm that area as new support.

The biggest support sits near $6.00. That zone acted as resistance from January to May 2026 before flipping. It also meets an exponential curve that has guided the uptrend since late 2025.

Buyers have defended that curve three times (green arrows). They stepped in at the March 20 low of $5.34, near $6.00 in early July, and around $6.25 in late July. Each test arrived at a higher level, a sign of an accelerating trend.

Above the market, an ascending trendline connects the January, May, and June peaks (blue circles). Its projection gives the current target of $6.85, roughly 2% above the spot price. The trendline and the curve converge near that level in September, setting up a clear decision point.

The daily RSI has entered overbought territory near 70. The indicator visited this region only twice before, in December 2025 and May 2026 (red circles). Both visits preceded consolidation rather than a reversal, which frames overbought readings here as trend strength. The move also fits the broader rotation of capital into commodities that BeInCrypto tracked in July, and it strengthens copper’s case in the mid-year metals outlook.

A close below $6.60 would delay the bullish setup, while a loss of $6.00 would invalidate it. The path to $6.85 now depends on whether real scarcity outlasts artificial, tariff-driven demand.

Source: BeInCrypto