XRP is changing hands around $1.35, down roughly 6% over the last week after slipping beneath a support level chart analysts had been watching closely since late August.

Trader ChartNerd says the token’s second failed weekly close above its 50-week EMA leaves room for a deeper slide to $1.27, or lower, before the rally that took XRP to $1.70 can resume.

Bulls Lose Their Grip on the $1.36 Floor

ChartNerd has been tracking XRP’s four-hour structure for weeks, watching a range that formed beneath $1.47 resistance and above $1.36 support. That floor has now been swept twice. According to the analyst, the price rejected from $1.43 and printed another lower high beneath a bearish trend signal sitting at $1.39.

Zooming out, the picture traces back to August 22, the day XRP touched a multi-month high of $1.70, as CryptoPotato reported. The rally followed a broader market move triggered by Bitcoin’s jump from under $65,000 to $80,000, and pushed XRP up 70% in three days after a tough start to the month that had briefly dragged it under $1.00. It ended August at just under $1.40, still a 30% monthly gain despite the pullback.

ChartNerd flagged the retracement risk the day after that peak, warning that a weekly close below the 50 EMA “would be an early warning sign in advance for a larger retracement.”

That’s exactly what has followed: two consecutive weekly closes beneath the average and a retreat the analyst pegged at around 22% from the top. The next support in that scenario is the weekly 20 EMA, which now sits at $1.27.

No Recovery Case Until $1.50 Gets Reclaimed

ChartNerd’s resistance ladder above the current price runs from $1.40 to $1.43, then $1.47, then $1.65, $1.82, and $2.40. On the downside, the levels being watched are $1.30, $1.27, $1.21, and $0.85, the last tied to a zone the analyst has been flagging for accumulation since June.

The broader case for a bottom rests on a golden cross that hasn’t formed yet. XRP’s EMAs are coiling, with price stuck under the 50-week average and above the 20-week one. Until both are reclaimed and held, ChartNerd isn’t willing to call a floor, comparing the current stretch to the compression that preceded August’s breakout.

Spot XRP ETFs still pulled in more than $110 million last week, their strongest inflow since December, which has kept some traders open to a faster turnaround than the charts alone suggest.

September carries its own catalysts, including a CLARITY Act vote in the Senate around September 15 and a shareholder vote on Evernorth’s planned Nasdaq listing. But none of that changes the technical picture ChartNerd is describing: XRP is boxed in below resistance, and until that changes, another leg down to $1.27 or beyond stays on the table.

Source: CryptoPotato