Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed $81,000 on Thursday as reports suggest the Iran war could be over. Reportedly, Donald Trump’s inner circle is advising the president to declare the war officially over, as pressure over midterm elections grows.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled he could back a September rate hold, further exacerbating the Bitcoin rally.

Bitcoin Rallies as Iran War Talk Shifts

The Wall Street Journal reported the private talks on Thursday. Trump reportedly thinks economic pressure alone will force Tehran to concede.

However, senior aides warned that more escalation could cost Republicans the November midterm elections.

Bitcoin has traded this war closely, sliding below $77,000 on Tuesday after Trump confirmed fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. So Thursday’s bounce fits the pattern.

The oil market, however, read the same day very differently. Brent crude rose toward $98 a barrel. That is a six-week high, not a peace trade.

Iran struck US military bases overnight. Israel also signaled it could resume operations. Trump has said publicly that the new fighting will not last long. The private talks match that message.

Tanker traffic says the same thing. Six commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Wednesday, against a 10-day average near 13.

Meanwhile the Pentagon is digging in, with the army air-defense tours reportedly stretching from nine months to twelve, and some units could stay into 2027.

Waller Adds a Second Tailwind for Bitcoin

Beyond Trump. Fed Governor Waller also moved markets on Thursday, weeks after policy makers split nine to three in July, with three officials pushing for a hike.

He said three-month core inflation slowed to 3.05% through July. It ran at 4.76% in February. Therefore Waller leans toward holding rates if August confirms that trend. A hot print would flip him.

“…it may not take much acceleration in inflation to nudge me into supporting tighter policy,” read an excerpt in his remarks.

Against this backdrop, CME FedWatch put September hike odds at 50.2%. That is down from 63.2% a day earlier, and below the rare Fed hike odds priced in late July.

So will $80,000 hold? The recent record argues for caution. Brent fell 9% intraday on August 2 when Trump announced talks to reopen Hormuz.

However, that trade unraveled quickly. Trump said Gulf states and Iran had asked him to delay a strike, and Iran’s Fars news agency denied it.

Oil is now back near $98. The war is in its sixth month. Trump has picked no strategy yet. Waller’s vote waits on August inflation. That leaves the Bitcoin price above $80,000 resting on two maybes.

Therefore, renewed strikes or a hot print would likely drag BTC toward Thursday’s $76,963 low.

Source: BeInCrypto