Bitcoin (BTC) hit an intraday high of $82,108 before easing to trade near $81,050. That is up 4.5% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.

The move extends an August rally. Fidelity Digital Assets says the jump alone does not confirm the bear market has ended.

Why Fidelity Is Still Cautious

Bitcoin logged its strongest monthly gain since November 2024 in August. Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) climbed even harder over the same stretch.

Fidelity’s Chris Kuiper points to a pattern seen before past bull runs. Low volatility tends to precede a sharp upward move. That is roughly what played out from June into late August, he says.

Some traders are also watching bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory. The idea holds that bear-market bottoms have historically landed about four years apart. That points to a possible bottom near November 2026, based on the November 2022 low.

Kuiper cautions the pattern has never repeated on a precise schedule and should not be used to time entries. This cycle’s low may already have formed in July, he adds, or a fresh low could arrive later this year.

Others Are Ready for a Bitcoin Bull Market

Not every analyst agrees. Eric Crown argues in a recent bear market call that the downturn already ended in August.

“The more important point for investors is that adoption of digital assets has happened in waves, which can perpetuate cycles.”
— Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research, Fidelity Digital Assets

Kuiper adds that recent negative headlines failed to drag prices lower. A hardware wallet security incident is one example he cites. He calls this a sign that sellers may be running low on room to push the market down.

The CLARITY Act, a bill meant to clarify federal oversight of crypto, remains stuck in the Senate. A voting day cut makes quick passage unlikely. Separately, the SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets, a framework for early-stage crypto offerings, remains open for public comment.

Fidelity points to growth in stablecoins and real-world assets, tokenized versions of things like bonds and real estate. That growth shows network fundamentals held up even as price lagged, it says.

It argues adoption and Bitcoin’s price action are now moving back in step. Whether that holds through the rest of the year is what Fidelity says investors should watch next.

Source: BeInCrypto