Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) climbed to multi-month highs again this week, but prediction market traders still assign low odds to either asset approaching record territory in 2026.

Polymarket traders give Bitcoin a 32% chance of touching $100,000 this year. Ethereum traders price a move to $3,500 at just 31%.

Rate Pause Signals and ETF Inflows Lift Crypto

Bitcoin rose 4.62% over 24 hours to $80,861, while Ethereum gained 4.85% to $2,501, according to BeInCrypto Markets data.

The rally follows reports suggesting the war in Iran could be over. In addition, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he could support holding rates steady.

Odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike fell to 50% today after reaching as high as 70%

Weak labor data reinforced the move. ADP reported that US private employers added 38,000 jobs in August. That fell short of expectations, near 47,000, and marked the weakest increase since January.

Institutional demand also returned. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) drew about $101.1 million in net inflows, led by the iShares Bitcoin Trust.

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Traders Reprice the Range, Not the Ceiling

Polymarket traders moved aggressively on the near end of the curve. The $85,000 Bitcoin contract jumped 43 points to 81%, while odds of a drop to $70,000 fell 28 points to 48%.

Higher targets stayed put. The $95,000, $100,000, $110,000, and $120,000 contracts showed no 24-hour change, holding at 44%, 32%, 20%, and 12%. The $90,000 line slipped 2 points to 61%.

Ethereum shows the same pattern. The $2,750 contract climbed 25 points to 75%, and the $3,000 contract added 4 points to 54%. However, $3,500 and $4,000 held flat at 31% and 17%.

Downside bets have not disappeared. Traders still give 72% odds that Bitcoin will revisit $75,000 and 56% odds that Ethereum will slip to $2,250.

Friday’s US jobs report will test whether the rate-pause trade holds. For now, positioning treats the move as a range shift rather than a path back toward the records of $126,080 and $4,946.

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Source: BeInCrypto