Bitcoin, once again, climbed above $80,000 after surging by 4.3% on Friday. The recent strength comes as a welcome change, as the crypto market spent much of the third quarter under pressure before a sharp rally in late August changed the tone. BTC, for one, recorded its strongest monthly gain since November 2024, which led some investors to believe the bear market may have ended.

But according to Fidelity, there is no guarantee that’s the case yet.

Possible November Bottom?

One factor in focus is Bitcoin’s historical four-year market cycle. The crypto asset has generally formed major bear-market bottoms and bull-market tops about four years apart. Since the previous bear market bottom came in November 2022, this pattern could point to another potential low around November 2026 if the cycle continues.

While Fidelity stressed that the four-year cycle is not guaranteed to repeat and that Bitcoin’s bottom may already have occurred in July, it still speculated that the cryptocurrency could fall again and set another low in November or later.

There are several catalysts that could also influence whether the crypto bear market ends. The financial giant pointed to more crypto-friendly regulation, changes in government monetary policy, the emergence of an unexpectedly popular crypto use case, and increasing institutional adoption. Price volatility is another factor the firm is watching.

Bitcoin’s previous bear markets have historically ended with a period of relatively low volatility followed by higher volatility and an upward expansion in price. Fidelity said the market experienced relatively low volatility from June through mid-August, which indicated that sellers may have become exhausted.

During that period, its analysis showed BTC and other crypto assets were trading toward the lower, or “value,” end of their historical price ranges. In late August, volatility increased sharply, with Bitcoin rising more than 25% during the third week of the month. Ethereum gained around 34% over the same period, while Solana rose 28%. Fidelity said this price behavior does not confirm that the bear market is over, but it is consistent with one possible historical pattern.

Meanwhile, events that might normally have pushed prices lower, including the Coldcard hardware wallet security exploit and the stalling of the CLARITY Act, did not result in further declines. This could support the narrative that cryptocurrencies are near a market bottom and may now be waiting for a new positive catalyst.

Crypto adoption continued to expand despite weak market sentiment. Bitwise Investments reported in early July that stablecoin transaction volume had reached 2.3 times Visa’s volume. MetaMask also reported in July that the real-world asset market had grown faster in 2026 than in any previous year.

Fidelity said this created a disconnect between adoption and prices, as activity in parts of the crypto industry kept increasing while the overall market remained in a bear market. The recent recovery could indicate that adoption and price have started to “recouple” again. An exact pattern occurred during the 2021-2022 bear market and the subsequent new bull market that began in late 2022.

CLARITY in Focus

Regulation remains another key factor for the market. The industry is still awaiting further action on the CLARITY Act, which aims to create a broader US regulatory framework for digital assets and clarify the responsibilities of federal regulators. The bill has passed the House but remains under consideration in the Senate, which leaves its timing and outcome uncertain.

The SEC also proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, which would address when certain early-stage crypto asset offerings could qualify for exemptions from securities registration requirements. The proposal is still subject to public comment and is not final, but Fidelity described it as an important step toward a more “tailored regulatory approach.”

Source: CryptoPotato