Fed rate hike fears collapsed on Wednesday after July inflation cooled to 3.4%. Gold climbed, crypto bounced, and a closely watched Bitcoin (BTC) bottom signal started flashing.

One piece is still missing. CryptoQuant says the panic selling that sealed every past bear market low has not arrived yet.

Fed Pause Odds Jump After a Cooler July CPI

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% for the month. Annual inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5% in June. Core inflation eased to 2.5%, its lowest since February. Cheaper gasoline, down 2.9% on the month, did much of the work.

Rate traders repriced within minutes. CME FedWatch now gives a 61.9% chance the Fed holds rates in September. A month ago, markets leaned toward a hike, and rare rate hike odds still rattled Bitcoin in late July.

Gold rose 0.5% to about $4,436 per ounce. The metal has rallied since last week’s weak US jobs report. Crypto followed the same relief trade, helped by steady inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management called the report encouraging, with the general assumption that it gives policymakers room to hold.

However, economist Peter Schiff challenges this outlook, arguing that July’s number still carries May’s oil price crash, not July’s rebound at the pump.

“July’s 0.1% CPI rise is misleading. Energy prices fell because CPI compares monthly average prices. But oil and gasoline rose sharply during July after starting the month at depressed levels. That means July CPI still reflects May’s oil price collapse, not July’s sharp rebound,” wrote Schiff.

If he is right, the next CPI print could look far less friendly.

Bitcoin Bottom Signal Flashes, but Capitulation Looks Incomplete

Meanwhilke, CryptoQuant’s adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (aNUPL) measures paper gains and losses across all holders. Right now, it shows something rare. Bitcoin’s most committed investors are deeper in the red than the market as a whole.

That pattern marked every major cycle low. It appeared in December 2018 and again in November 2022, when BTC bottomed 77% below its peak. Today’s damage is milder. BTC trades roughly 50% below its cycle high, near $64,160.

“Bitcoin is displaying a condition repeatedly associated with macro bottoms, but not yet the emotional and financial exhaustion that made previous bottoms unmistakable,” CryptoQuant analysts wrote.

Fidelity Digital Assets tracks the same cohort. The firm recently flagged long-term holder supply as one of the clearest reads on a forming bottom.

So why no bottom call? Past lows pushed holder losses far deeper, into what CryptoQuant calls “depression” territory. This cycle may not need that.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, live since January 2024, give institutions a way to absorb the coins that panicked sellers dump. Some chart watchers still expect a final bear leg first.

The tell is what aNUPL does next. A deeper slide with real selling would look like the classic final flush. A turn back toward zero, while BTC holds a higher low, would suggest the worst has passed.

One more CPI report lands before the Fed’s September 16 decision. It may answer both questions at once.

Source: BeInCrypto