An altcoin season is almost always defined by the shift in Bitcoin dominance, which has actually increased over the last few days. So, why does that mean an altcoin season is unlikely in the current bull run?

The ETH/BTC ratio has broken out of a long-term declining channel and reached a 7-month high near 0.0334. Both moves cannot be bullish for altcoins at once. One points to capital rotating into Ethereum. The other points to capital concentrating in Bitcoin at the expense of everything else.

ETH/BTC Reaches 7-Month High After 32% Rally

Ethereum (ETH) has gained 32.28% against Bitcoin (BTC) since the June low at 0.02525. The ratio peaked near 0.0334 last week on TradingView’s weekly Binance chart. That marks its highest level since January 2026.

That move broke the descending parallel channel that had capped the pair since August 2025. The breakout came at the end of June, and the ratio has held above the channel since.

Resistance now sits at 0.03213, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 0.04327. Above that, the 0.5 level at 0.03426 marks the next barrier.

Support at 0.031 matters more. The level marks the April 2026 swing high for Ethereum against Bitcoin. Losing it would cast doubt on the breakout.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads near 60 and continues to rise. Ethereum traded at $2,472 and Bitcoin at $78,827 at the time of writing, placing the ratio near 0.0313.

Bitcoin Dominance Broke Out in the Same Week

The bullish reading weakens once Bitcoin dominance comes into play. The metric tracks Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market capitalization, and it closed last week at 60.15%.

That close cleared a descending trendline drawn from the June 2025 high. It also cleared the upper boundary of a triangle formation. Dominance gained 0.91% for the week.

The last resistance sits at 60.50%, a zone that capped the metric in April and May 2026. Support rests at 58.54%, with stronger support at 58% tested in June and July.

Rising dominance and a rising ratio can coexist. Together, however, they suggest that capital is moving into Ethereum and Bitcoin, while smaller altcoins are losing share.

Traders are Positioned for an Altseason That Has Not Arrived

The Altcoin Season Index sits at 39, down from roughly 67 in early August. Blockchain Center derives its reading from how many of the top 50 coins have beaten Bitcoin over 90 days.

Altcoin season requires 75. The current figure, therefore, points away from a broad rotation.

Derivatives tell a different story. Glassnode reported that 85% of altcoins now show funding rates above their mean. That marks the highest print since Bitcoin traded at record levels.

“The altcoin market has entered a state of optimism. 85% of alts reached funding rates above their mean… In an alt season, these conditions can last for many weeks.”

Positioning is not performance. Traders have crowded into altcoin longs while spot returns still trail Bitcoin. Meanwhile, bitcoin itself trades roughly 37% below its October 2025 record.

Historically, altcoin seasons follow new Bitcoin highs rather than drawdowns. That context weakens the case for altseason, though it does not close it.

Three outcomes remain. A weekly close above 0.03426 on ETH/BTC, paired with a rejection at 60.50% dominance, would suggest rotation has genuinely started.

A dominance break above 60.50% while the ratio stalls would mark an ether rally instead. A drop below 0.031 would suggest the entire move was a relief bounce.

Source: BeInCrypto