Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, says there is a 65% chance Bitcoin’s (BTC) cycle low still lies ahead. That keeps his bear market thesis alive despite a sharp summer rally.

Cowen made the comment in a video interview. He pointed to Bitcoin’s realized price near $53,000 as the level bears still need to test before calling the bottom.

Why Cowen Still Leans Bearish

Bitcoin traded near $78,300 at publication time, down 1.7% over the past 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto data. Cowen made his comments after Bitcoin had already rallied roughly 40% off its summer low.

Cowen said that rally alone does not confirm a bottom. He noted Bitcoin posted similar or larger bounces in 2018 and 2022. It still fell again in the fourth quarter of each midterm year.

Cowen said assuming the pattern breaks this time would repeat a mistake traders made in prior cycles. He added that holds even if his current call ends up wrong.

“I would say it’s probably 65% chance the low occurs in the future and 35% chance it’s behind us.”

Benjamin Cowen

Cowen pointed to Bitcoin’s realized price, the network’s aggregate cost basis, as a historical marker for cycle lows. That figure sits near $53,000, a level BeInCrypto’s earlier Q4 bottom coverage also flagged as a key threshold.

Every prior midterm-year bear market bottomed below that line, Cowen said. The exact month it happened has varied widely across cycles.

The analyst has long argued Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle pattern. Lows typically form in a midterm year’s fourth quarter, he said. An October low would keep that pattern intact.

What Comes Next

Cowen added that clearing October without a lower low would start to shift the odds toward the bulls. He said the bigger risk is time-based capitulation rather than a specific price target.

He expects some headwinds for Bitcoin over roughly the next month and a half. As the fourth quarter progresses, he said he expects more bears to turn bullish.

If the pattern breaks and bears capitulate, Cowen said he would drop his bearish bias. He expects to turn bullish again heading into 2027, regardless of how the rest of this year plays out.

Cowen said a dollar-cost-averaging approach tends to work better than trying to pinpoint the exact low. He added that this is not financial advice.

Until then, he is treating $53,000 as the level to watch rather than assuming the bottom has already passed.

Source: BeInCrypto