• Grayscale considers the crypto asset AAVE undervalued despite the crisis around rsETH.
• The company saw the potential for the token to grow more than twofold.
• In addition, it is betting on Hyperliquid and Uniswap in 2026.

The analytical division of Grayscale Investments published a study on valuing crypto assets through traditional financial models and stated that the token of the DeFi protocol Aave could be worth about $175 within a year under the base market scenario. In addition, Grayscale singled out Uniswap and Hyperliquid as examples of protocols with effective mechanisms for transferring value to token holders.

The company believes that the asset's current price of about $75 does not fully reflect its fundamental value, especially amid the growth of the protocol's revenue and a potential strengthening of regulatory certainty.

Grayscale noted that the crypto market is gradually moving from valuing assets through narratives to analyzing real financial indicators.

"The overall picture is that the crypto market is revaluing assets, moving from narratives to fundamental indicators. Protocols with real revenue, disciplined capital allocation, and transparent tokenomics show the best results," the report says.

Grayscale compared crypto assets with traditional asset classes

The analysts emphasized that the first step in valuing any crypto asset is to determine the sources of its value. In their opinion, digital assets cannot be valued by a single model, since they have different economic natures.

In the study, crypto assets were divided into several categories:

• bitcoin, Zcash, and Monero were classified as "commodity" assets;
• Aave, Uniswap, and Sky as assets oriented toward cash flows;
• Ethereum, Solana, Sui, Near, Hyperliquid, and Chainlink occupy an intermediate position.

Grayscale also drew attention to the industry's youth. According to the company's estimates, the average age of the 30 largest crypto assets is about eight years, whereas the average age of the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index exceeds 100 years.

In the researchers' opinion, it is precisely the early stage of the industry's development that explains the constant debates about the classification, regulation, and fair valuation of digital assets.

DeFi has already brought almost $25 billion in fees

Grayscale emphasized that decentralized finance can no longer be considered an exclusively speculative segment of the market.

"Starting in 2023, DeFi protocols have generated almost $25 billion in cumulative fees from real users," the analysts noted.

The main sources of the sector's revenue remain:

• decentralized exchanges (DEXs);
• liquid staking;
• lending;
• derivative financial instruments.

The company believes that many DeFi protocols already resemble traditional financial and fintech companies thanks to stable sources of revenue, high margins, and a scalable business model.

Separately, Grayscale singled out Aave as one of the most prominent representatives of this segment.

Why Grayscale considers the AAVE token undervalued

According to the report, Aave remains the largest DeFi lending protocol and has more than $59 billion in deposits and about $25 billion in loans issued.

Who is the master in Aave: $1 trillion in loans issued, a dispute over money and the role of Aave Labs 02/27/2026 Read

The analysts expect that in 2026 the protocol will earn about $60 million in net profit.

"Despite recent difficulties, we believe that Aave will earn about $60 million in 2026. Typical fintech company multiples of 20–25x imply a fair capitalization of $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion, or a token price of about $80–100 compared with the current market price of about $75," Grayscale noted.

At the same time, the company's base scenario assumes a significantly higher growth potential.

"In the base scenario, in which regulatory certainty accelerates the adoption of tokenized assets, we believe that the fair value of the AAVE token could rise to about $175 within one year," the report says.

The analysts also emphasized that valuing DeFi projects only by revenue volume is not enough.

In their opinion, the decisive role is played by mechanisms for transferring value to token holders, in particular coin burning, buybacks, staking, and reward programs.

The company drew attention to the fact that some protocols, in particular Uniswap and Hyperliquid, return almost all the profit received to token holders, whereas others direct a significant part of the funds to the development of the ecosystem.

Separately, the analysts mentioned the risks associated with DAOs, which still remain in conditions of regulatory uncertainty.

Consequences of the rsETH crisis for Aave

The report also mentions the difficult period that Aave recently went through after the incident with rsETH from KelpDAO.

In April 2026 hackers exploited a vulnerability in the LayerZero infrastructure and created unbacked rsETH tokens worth more than $290 million. Part of these assets were used as collateral in Aave, which caused a large-scale outflow of capital and a sharp reduction in the protocol's TVL. More in the material:

The attack on KelpDAO crashed trust in DeFi and caused an Aave crisis — experts 04/21/2026 Read

After the attack, analysts and market participants called the incident one of the largest crises in the DeFi sector in recent years.

Later, ecosystem participants launched the DeFi United initiative to restore the rsETH collateral. Lido DAO, Golem Foundation, EtherFi, and other projects joined it. Aave founder Stani Kulechov reported a personal contribution of 5,000 ETH.

Subsequently the LayerZero team acknowledged errors in the configuration of the security system and announced a large-scale rebuilding of the infrastructure. In turn, Aave reported progress in restoring the rsETH collateral. In particular, eight of the attacker's positions in Aave V3 on Ethereum and Arbitrum were liquidated, and the rsETH tokens obtained were handed over to the Recovery Guardian in accordance with the decision of the Aave DAO.

Despite the consequences of the incident, Grayscale believes that Aave's dominant market position, diversified sources of revenue, and significant reserve volume provide the protocol with a favorable risk-reward ratio for investors.

Source: Incrypted